But the EIA insist that Russian oil output will decline by 18% – from 11.3mbpd in Q1 2022 to 9.3mbpd Q3 2023 as a result of the EU embargo
Amidst plans by the G7 to cap Russia’s oil in the international market, reports yesterday said Russia’s crude and condensate production has increased in June by 5% to an average of 10.7mbp.
Quoting sources familiar with the production numbers, Russian daily Kommersant, reported the increase, explaining that the production level includes condensate, which is not included in Russia’s quota in the OPEC+ deal but which the Russian authorities don’t report separately from crude production.
But observers insist that the Western sanctions, however, are hammering Russian oil production and exports, despite the fact that Russia is selling record volumes of crude to India these days.
Russia was already almost 1.3 million bpd below its target production in May, an OPEC+ document seen by Reuters showed this month.
Russia is believed to be producing around 800,000 bpd-900,000 bpd of condensate. The June level of Russia’s oil production is below the January-February level of around 11 million bpd, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the mass shunning of Russian crude oil in the West.
Kommersant said actually put the June fall of Russia’s oil exports at 3.3%, even as domestic refining demand is rising seasonally. Experts however told the Russian daily that it’s too early to talk about a steady decline in Russian oil exports.
In production, all Russian companies managed to stabilize their production from the declines in April and May, while Rosneft’s production even jumped by 15%, according to Kommersant’s sources.
The report said operators with production sharing agreements continued to see a decline in output. At Sakhalin-1, for example, which U.S. supermajor Exxon said it would quit, output in June tumbled fivefold, Kommersant said
Earlier this month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia was raising its oil production this month compared to May and expects to further boost output in July.
Russia is seeing a significant increase in its production so far this month compared to May, an increase of around 600,000 bpd, Novak said on the sidelines of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.
Early this June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that in the near term, Russian oil output may to decline by 18%—from 11.3 million bpd in the first quarter of 2022 to 9.3 million bpd in the final quarter of 2023 as a result of the EU embargo on both crude oil and refined product imports.
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